EUROPEAN SNAPSHOT

August 1, 2025

Biggest Movers (on release)

  • UP: Davide Campari Milano, Pearson, Melrose Industries
  • DOWN: Teleperformance, Evonik, Intertek, AXA, Jeronimo Martins, AIB, Engie, Daimler Truck, IAG, IMI, Erste Bank
  • Unemployment data day in the US but before that tariff days, with surprising high rates for Switzerland, Canada, Taiwan and India, with another example of the use of tariffs not just to reduce deficit but as a political tool (Canada on Gaza after Brazil on Bolsonaro). With the extent of the tariff change, the true impact on trade, the economy and inflation is still hard to assess. The Eurozone inflation data shows some increase in goods and food inflation as noted with the domestic data. The PMI manufacturing input costs is down but really dragged down by Germany, and we see some increase in inflation in the other countries. Inflation comments are also subdued in Sweden and the UK.

    The July Eurozone PMI is confirmed at 49.8 in July, highest in 36 months, up from 49.5 in June pointing to stabilization. The Eurozone PMI is maintained even as the German Manufacturing PMI is revised slightly down to 49.1 from 49.2 and the French Manufacturing PMI is also revised down to 48.2 from 48.4, indicating upwards revision for the rest of Europe. Italy Manufacturing PMI increased to the highest level in 16 months at 49.8 (48.4 in June) above expectations of 49. Spain Manufacturing PMI at 51.9 also beat expectations of 51.5, up from 51.4 in June and now at the highest in 7months. Manufacturing activity also accelerated in July in the Netherlands with the PMI at 51.9 up from 51.2 (highest in 14 months). We saw a marginal slowdown in Ireland (53.2 vs 53.7 a 2-month low) and a more pronounced slowdown in Greece, down to 51.7 vs 53.1, slowest in 8 months. Austria (published earlier) improved to 48.2 from 47, at a 2months high.

    Overall, the eurozone manufacturing activity stabilized in July with output slightly up (50.6) only marginally slower than in June (50.8) but up for the 5th consecutive month. Production rose in Germany (slower pace 50.6 vs 51.9, 5 months low), Spain and the Netherlands but decline modestly in France and Italy. Orders are down overall, up in Spain and German, Holland Ireland and Spain but fell sharply in France (steepest decline since January) and only marginally in Italy. And declined for the 3rd month in Greece. New orders increased in Ireland but slowed to the slowest since February. Orders growth accelerated in the Netherlands (highest since May 2024). Tariffs certainly affected demand.

    Manufacturing employment continued to edge lower in the Euro Area, down in Germany and Italy, but we saw some slight job addition in France, Spain (fastest since December) and the Netherlands (fastest since March 2023). Inflation remained subdued, Input costs and output costs stabilized after 3 months of decline. Germany dragged down inflation: output prices increased for the first time in 5 months in France and inflation increased slightly in Spain and Italy, Greece and The Netherlands.

    In Sweden the Manufacturing PMI surged to 54.2 from 51.8, the highest since May 2022 on higher orders, delivery times and expected production. Employment growth slowed. Delivery times increased by the most since December, but input costs remained subdued.

    The UK Manufacturing PMI is revised down to 48 from 48.2 flash estimates, slightly up from 47.7 in June, remaining at a 6-month high. Production declined for the 9th consecutive month but at the weakest rate over that period and close to stability. New orders are down again (10 consecutive months), falling at a steeper rate than in June. here as well inflation remained subdued with both Input costs and output cost are reported as about stable in July. Iin the UK we also have a better housing price index from nationwide in July.

    The Eurozone inflation is unchanged at 2% yoy, slightly above expectations of 1.9%. The Core HICP also is higher than expected at 2.3% unchanged from June but vs 2.2% anticipated. Energy inflation is about stable at -2.5% yoy versus -2.6% yoy in June. Food inflation increased to 3.3% vs 3.1% (including alcohol & tobacco), with Processed food inflation (including alcohol & tobacco) up slightly to 2.7% yoy form 2.6% (with negative contribution on inflation from sharp Dutch Tobacco inflation). Unprocessed food inflation increased significantly to 5.4% yoy from 4.6%.

    As we have noted in several countries, we have higher non-energy goods inflation. Services’ inflation fell to 3.1% from 3.6% as anticipated

    Core inflation increased in France (as implied with the CPI data) and Austria but overall was down in most countries, including Germany, Holland, Finland, and was unchanged in Italy, Belgium and Greece. With services inflation down in most countries where data I available only up in Greece, On the other hand non-energy industrial goods inflation increased across the board (only down in Finland, stable in Italy and Greece).

    The Dutch inflation declined in line with expectations, down to 2.9% from 3.1% (+1.3% m/m) lowest since May 2024 amid high comparison basis from 2024). The HCPI is down to 2.5% from 2.8%. The CPI excluding energy is down to 3.1% from 3.3% and energy inflation increased to 1% from 0.5%. Services inflation decreased to 4% from 4.4% in June (up 3.4% m/m this July vs 3.9% m/m in July 2024).

    Food inflation including beverages and Tobacco decreased to 4.1% from 4.6% on lower processed food inflation (3.7% yoy vs 4.4% in June,0.7% m/m) even as unprocessed food inflation increased to 5.9% from 5.3% yoy. Note though that tobacco inflation will decline further in June due to still high comparison from 2024 (+6.6% m/m in July 2024) as the 2024 excise duty is phasing out.

    Stocks are down, accelerating post the US data, and bond yield reversed the earlier increase. It opens the door for September cuts, but inflation data could be throwing a wrench on that view as tariffs take hold. The Latest Fed balance sheet update also is a good reminder of the upcoming tighter liquidity. Also the US debt keeps increasing, now up ~$580bn in July.

    On the companies’ front:

    Davide Campari’s H1 2025 net sales grew 0.3% to €1,528 million, with organic growth essentially flat due to a sluggish Q1; while Q2 saw improved momentum, ongoing destocking in certain brands and persistent volatility in both the US and Germany continued to weigh, leaving management focused on cost discipline and long-term brand investments.

    Melrose reported adjusted operating profit of £310 million for H1 2025, surpassing analyst consensus on back of robust performance in defense and civil aerospace; management affirmed the full-year profit forecast and highlighted resilience against U.S. tariffs through proactive supply-chain measures.

    Pearson PLC’s H1 2025 adjusted operating profit of £242 million beat market estimates, even though overall sales of £1.72 billion fell just shy of consensus; the management maintained its confidence in digital learning growth and cost control, noting subscription-based products are helping offset softness in traditional divisions.

    IAG delivered H1 2025 earnings ahead of expectations, with revenue up 8% to €15.91bn and operating profit before exceptional items climbing 43.5% to €1.88bn, driven by robust demand—especially for premium cabins—and successful cost discipline, confirming a positive outlook for full-year growth and margin improvement.

    Erste Group bank’s H1 2025 results showed strong capital and earnings quality, with raised outlook for 2025 based on robust loan growth, improved return targets, and reduced risk cost guidance, reflecting business resilience in the challenging CEE region.

    Daimler Truck’s Q2 2025 adjusted EBIT edged above forecasts at €1.118 billion, but the company lowered its full-year profit outlook as persistent weakness in North American demand and global uncertainty weighed on volume, prompting management to caution on cyclical risks ahead.

    AIB’s H1 2025 results saw net profit of €927 million and RoTE of 21.4%, broadly in line with consensus, with rising fee and commission income and steady mortgage growth supporting guidance for full-year RoTE above 20% amid firm demand and a resilient Irish economy.

    Engie’s H1 2025 EBIT excluding nuclear fell 6.4%, coming in at the bottom end of expectations as energy prices dropped and hydropower output lagged, but management affirmed full-year targets and highlighted strategic positioning for recovery once market conditions normalize.

    Jeronimo Martins’ Q2 2025 EBITDA surged 16.5% to €620 million, with sales and margins both up year-on-year thanks to strength in Poland and Colombia, though management expressed caution on sustaining like-for-like growth in H2 due to persistent cost and consumer headwinds.

    AXA reported half-year revenues up 7% and underlying EPS up 8%, modestly ahead of consensus on core profit but slightly below on net income; management emphasized continued pricing discipline and strategic expansion, while noting the Prima deal in Italy as an anticipated contributor to future value.

    Evonik’s Q2 2025 profit fell 12% to €509 million, coming in just below consensus as sales dropped 11% on divestments and weaker demand; management reiterated year-end guidance but remained cautious due to ongoing softness in the chemical market and broader economic uncertainty.

    Teleperformance H1 2025 revenue grew 1.5% like-for-like to €5,116 million, with strength in Core Services offset by a 7% decline in Specialized Services, leading management to guide for full-year growth at the low end of its original range while emphasizing operational agility and successful rollout of AI-enabled offerings. More details on equities here

    Tariff Day

    MACRO:

    EUROPEAN PM – SUMMARY TABLE

    FED BALANCE SHEET

    Sharp decline in reserves with the rebuilding of the Treasury general Account (TGA), up $85.9bn w/w to $419.5bn The Domestic Reverse Repo (RR) was still down -$34.2bn to $155.5bn On July 30 day of the balance sheet snapshot, but increased at month end to $214.45bn, taking more liquidity out yesterday.

    The US treasury reiterate the target of $850bn for the TGA end September, still a 430bn to go, while there are no juice reserves within the RR facility. We will also have the general withdrawal of reserves with the September tax payments.

    Reserves are down -58.69bn w/w to a still comfortable 11% of GDP but will near the 9.5% threshold in September.

    The Fed loss reached -$230.91bn as of Wednesday (the negative liabilities of “other liabilities and accrued dividend)

    Deeper loss

    Higher Debt: up by ~$590bn since July 4 as of July 30 to $36.8tn

    DUTCH INFLATION (July Prelim)

    The July Dutch Preliminary CPI declined in line with expectations, down to 2.9% from 3.1% (+1.3% m/m) lowest since May 2024 amid high comparison basis from 2024). The HCPI is down to 2.5% from 2.8%.

    The CPI excluding energy is down to 3.1% from 3.3% and energy inflation increased to 1% from 0.5%. Services inflation decreased to 4% from 4.4% in June (up 3.4% m/m this July vs 3.9% m/m in July 2024).

    Food inflation including beverages and Tobacco decreased to 4.1% from 4.6% on lower processed food inflation (3.7% yoy vs 4.4% in June,0.7% m/m) even as unprocessed food inflation increased to 5.9% from 5.3% yoy. Note though that tobacco inflation will decline further in June due to still high comparison from 2024 (+6.6% m/m in July 2024) as the 2024 excise duty is phasing out.

    Industrial goods excluding energy saw inflation increased to 1.4% m/m from 0.6% even as processed food inflation decreased, indicating sharper increase for non-energy, non-food goods pointing to only a slight decrease in core inflation.

    CBS.nl release

    High services comparison in July (it will still be slightly high in August at +0.3 vs 0% average but low in September -1.8% vs -1.3% average)

    Tobacco Impact (as of June), more in July

    EUROZONE INFLATION

    The Eurozone Preliminary July HICP inflation is unchanged at 2% yoy, slightly above expectations of 1.9%. The Core HICP also is higher than expected at 2.3% unchanged from June but vs 2.2% anticipated.

    Energy inflation is about stable at -2.5% yoy versus -2.6% yoy in June.

    Food inflation increased to 3.3% vs 3.1% (including alcohol & tobacco), with Processed food inflation (including alcohol & tobacco) up slightly to 2.7% yoy form 2.6% (with negative contribution on inflation from sharp Dutch Tobacco inflation). Unprocessed food inflation increased significantly to 5.4% yoy from 4.6%.

    As we have noted in several countries, we have higher non-energy goods inflation

    Services’ inflation fell to 3.1% from 3.6% as anticipated.

    In terms of countries inflation increased in Spain, Portugal, Greece, Austria, Finland, Croatia, Lithuania, Slovenia, and Estonia. Inflation was stable in France, Ireland, Latvia and down in Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Belgium and Slovakia

    Core inflation increased in France (as implied with the CPI data) and Austria but overall was down in most countries, including Germany, Holland, Finland, and was unchanged in Italy, Belgium and Greece. With services inflation down in most countries where data I available only up in Greece, On the other hand non-energy industrial goods inflation increased across the board (only down in Finland, stable in Italy and Greece)

    Services

    Eurostat Release

    EUROZONE MANUFACTURING PMI

    The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is confirmed at 49.8 in July, highest in 36 months, up from 49.5 in June pointing to stabilization. The Eurozone PMI is maintained even as the German Manufacturing PMI is revised slightly down to 49.1 from 49.2 and the French Manufacturing PMI is also revised down to 48.2 from 48.4, indicating upwards revision for the rest of Europe. Italy Manufacturing PMI increased to the highest level in 16 months at 49.8 (48.4 in June) above expectations of 49. Spain Manufacturing PMI at 51.9 also beat expectations of 51.5, up from 51.4 in June and now at the highest in 7months. Manufacturing activity also accelerated in July in the Netherlands with the PMI at 51.9 up from 51.2 (highest in 14 months). We saw a marginal slowdown in Ireland (53.2 vs 53.7 a 2-month low) and a more pronounced slowdown in Greece, down to 51.7 vs 53.1, slowest in 8 months. Austria (published earlier) improved to 48.2 from 47, at a 2months high. HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI,

    Overall, the eurozone manufacturing activity stabilized in July with output slightly up (50.6) only marginally slower than in June (50.8) but up for the 5th consecutive month.

    Production rose in Germany (slower pace 50.6 vs 51.9, 5 months low), Spain and the Netherlands but decline modestly in France and Italy. The slight increase in production came despite a decline in orders with exports under pressure in July.

    Orders are also up in Spain and Germany but fell sharply in France (steepest decline since January) and only marginally in Italy. Exports orders picked up in Spain but decline for the 3rd month in Greece. New orders increased in Ireland but slowed to the slowest since February. Orders growth accelerated in the Netherlands (highest since May 2024). Overall, Tariffs certainly affected demand.

    Backlogs declined at the Eurozone level but at the slowest pace in 3 years. Backlogs declined at the slowest pace since mid-2022 in Germany, also down at a slower pace in Italy. Backlogs fell at a faster pace in Greece and rose for the 3rd consecutive months in Spain. Backlogs continue to decline in the Netherlands.

    Purchasing activities is down for Euro Area manufacturers but falling by the least in over 3 years. It is down in France, Italy and Spain, but increases slightly in Germany (2nd month) and is up in The Netherlands for the first time in almost 3 years. Eurozone manufacturing input goods inventories are down again but at the slowest pace since early 2023, down in France, Germany and Greece, but up for the first time in about 3years in Italy.

    Manufacturing employment continued to edge lower in the Euro Area, down in Germany and Italy, but we saw some slight job addition in France, while producers increased staff at accelerated pace in Spain (fastest since December) and the Netherlands (fastest since March 2023). Greek manufacturing workforce addition eased in July (8-month low)

    Manufacturing Input costs stabilized after 3 months of decline. Costs declined in Germany but rose in France, Italy, Spain, Holland and Greece with some supply chains delay mentioned in Greece and the Netherlands.

    Output prices were also stable in manufacturing after 3 months of decline, still down sharply in Germany. Output prices increased for the first time in 5 months in France and inflation increased slightly in Spain and Italy, Greece and The Netherlands.

    Eurozone producers’ optimism is slightly down in July from June 40 months high. It deteriorated in France; it is down to a 3-month low in Spain but improved in Italy. It remains high in Germany and in the Netherlands

    HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI,

    HCOB France Manufacturing PMI,

    HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI,

    HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI,

    Nevi Netherlands Manufacturing PMI

    S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI

    SWEDEN MANUFACTURING PMI

    The July PMI surged to 54.2 from 51.8, the highest since May 2022 on higher orders, delivery times and expected production.

  • Production slowed slightly (54.8 vs 55.6) but we saw a significant rebound in orders (56.2 vs 48.8).
  • Orders are back to growth on the domestic front (52.1 v s 49.9) while exports demand accelerated (51 vs 50.4). Backlogs increased again after stagnating in June (51.8 vs 50).
  • Delivery times increased by the most since December at 53.1 (50.7 in June) but pricing pressure remained subdued.
  • Input material costs see stable prices 50.3 vs 50.4 in June and around 50 for the last 4 months.
  • Inventory of purchased materials are shrinking faster though (46.4 vs 47.5) even as production expectations are higher (63.6 vs 62.8)
  • Swedish producers increased employment at a slower and modest rate (51.7 vs 52.1)
  • Silf Release

    UK MANUFACTURING PMI

    The UK manufacturing PMI is revised down to 48 from 48.2 flash estimates, slightly up from 47.7 in June, remaining at a 6-month high.

  • Production declined for the 9th consecutive month but at the weakest rate over that period and close to stability.
  • New orders are down again (10 consecutive months), falling at a steeper rate than in June, down at an accelerated pace for both domestic and foreign clients. UK producers reduced staff again in July amid higher labor costs and weaker demand.
  • Backlogs are down and stocks of input and finished goods are lower.
  • Manufacturing Input costs and output cost are reported as about stable in July. Companies still mention “higher transportation, shipping and supplier costs adding to purchase prices
  • S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI

    UK HOUSING - NATIONWIDE

    Rebound in housing prices in July according to Nationwide, with house price index up +0.6% m/m (sa) after a revised -0.9% m/m in June. It is the best July since 2020. The average house price reached £272,664 up 2.4% yoy (improving from 2.1% yoy in June), just shy of May’s record of £273,437. See Nationwide Release

    EARNINGS / RELEASES

    Friday, August 1, 2025

    CPR

    Davide Campari Milano NV

    EUR

    6.62

    +9.24%

    Cavide Campari release

    CPR

    Davide Campari reported H1 2025 net sales up 0.3% to €1,528 million, tracking at the lower end of consensus estimates, and organic growth essentially flat due to a slow Q1 and only a modest Q2 recovery. The group saw solid outperformance across most geographies in Q2, especially at the start of the peak season, while organic topline growth improved by 2% in underlying terms. Notably, outperformance in the US on-premise was supported by strong showings in Aperol and tequila but continued destocking in certain brands and persisting volatility in the Americas weighed on growth, with the US and Germany remaining notably soft. Margin trends were mixed: visible SG&A deceleration is expected to play out more fully in the second half, while a cost discipline focus and operational efficiency drove reassuring bottom-line delivery despite soft sales. Management described the portfolio as “well-positioned for long-term outperformance” and highlighted ongoing investments in brand building and the decision to streamline operations, including the disposal of Cinzano. CEO Bob Kunze-Concewitz cautioned that although normalization of trends is progressing and marketing investments are being front-loaded for H2 results, headwinds from currency, inflation, and tough comparable continue.

    MRO

    MELROSE INDUSTRIES PLC

    GBp

    539.40

    +5.31%

    Melrose Industriesrelease

    MRO

    Melrose reported its H1 2025 adjusted operating profit of £310 million today, topping analyst consensus of £299 million. The strong result was driven by elevated demand in defense and civil aerospace segments, with management citing increased defense spending amid geopolitical tensions. Despite exposure to U.S. tariffs, they affirmed having largely mitigated impact via supply‑chain restructuring. Melrose also confirmed its full‑year 2025 profit forecast on a constant currency basis and stressed the resilience of its GKN Aerospace business.

    PSON

    PEARSON PLC

    GBp

    1138.00

    +6.11%

    Pearson PLC release

    PSON

    Pearson PLC posted adjusted operating profit of £242 million in H1 2025, beating market consensus of ~£225 million, though total sales of £1.72 billion fell just below the ~£1.74 billion estimate; revenue from key divisions such as Virtual Learning and Higher Education was also slightly under consensus targets (£242m vs £243.6m and £337m vs £350.8m). Management reiterated confidence in digital transformation and cost discipline, noting robust momentum in subscription-based virtual learning products.

    IAG

    International Consolidated Airlines Group SA

    GBp

    375.70

    -1.26%

    IAG release

    IAG

    IAG delivered H1 2025 results that exceeded analyst expectations, with revenue rising 8% to €15.91bn and operating profit before exceptional items surging 43.5% to €1.88bn, well above consensus estimates. CEO Luis Gallego highlighted the company's "robust demand delivering good earnings growth" across core markets, emphasizing that they continue to see "resilient demand for air travel across all our markets, particularly in the premium cabins and despite the macroeconomic uncertainty". Adjusted earnings per share jumped nearly 70%, while margins improved by 2.9 percentage points to 11.8%, supported by IAG's transformation program and cost discipline. The results were driven by favorable fuel costs, foreign exchange tailwinds, and strong performance across core brands including British Airways, Iberia, and Aer Lingus, with net debt falling to €5.46bn and leverage down to 0.7x EBITDA. Management confirmed confidence in delivering full-year earnings growth and margin progression despite ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, with forward bookings showing 57% booked for H2 at revenue levels in line with last year as of July 29.

    IMI

    IMI PLC

    GBp

    2214.00

    -0.36%

    IMI release

    IMI

    IMI PLC delivered continued strategic progress in H1 2025, posting a 5% organic operating profit increase and 2% organic revenue growth, outperforming consensus expectations. The group’s adjusted operating margin expanded by 30 basis points to 18.2% amid strong pricing and cost control. Statutory profit dipped due to a one-off cyber incident, but cash generation remained solid, supporting a 10% increase in interim dividend. CEO Roy Twite highlighted momentum across energy transition, automation, and life sciences exposure, while noting some softness in transport markets. Guidance for mid-single digit full-year organic revenue growth was reconfirmed and management stressed further operational investments to support innovative product launches. Strong liquidity, disciplined capital allocation, and a clear growth strategy underpin IMI’s position for the rest of the year, with investors reassured by resilient margin delivery.

    EBS

    Erste Group Bank AG

    EUR

    80.50

    -0.06%

    Erste Group Bank AG release

    EBS

    Erste Group Bank achieved H1 net interest income of €3.786bn and net fee income of €1.542bn, with the CET1 capital ratio strengthening to 17.4% and return on equity reaching 16.4%. Operating income rose to €5.668bn while operating expenses were contained at €2.706bn, reflecting disciplined cost management amid inflationary pressures. Management raised its 2025 financial outlook, now expecting to achieve a return on tangible equity (ROTE) of more than 15% (reflecting better loan volume and P&L dynamics), with robust loan growth of more than 5% and net interest income projected to actually increase somewhat in 2025 versus previous guidance of remaining flat. The bank tightened its full-year risk costs guidance to about 20 basis points from previously about 25 basis points, while expecting the CET1 ratio to further increase to above 18.25%, positioning the bank well for continued sustainable growth and shareholder returns.

    DTG

    Daimler Truck Holding AG

    EUR

    39.79

    -2.43%

    Daimler Truck Holding AG release

    DTG

    Daimler Truck published its Q2 2025 results today, reporting an adjusted EBIT of €1.118 billion—slightly ahead of €1.065 billion consensus—and highlighted strong adjusted return on sales in its Industrial Business despite volume declines. However, the group cut its full‑year adjusted EBIT guidance to €3.6–4.1 billion (down from prior consensus ~€4.15 billion), citing persistent softness in North American truck demand where Q2 order intake was only 13.8 k vs expected ~21 k. CEO Karin Rådström and CFO Eva Scherer warned that North America remains the key drag, with global economic uncertainty and trade tensions weighing. While margins hold firm, management struck a cautious tone on cyclical headwinds ahead.

    ERG

    ERG SpA

    EUR

    19.55

    +3.00%

    ERG

    Q2 results after market close

    A5G

    AIB GROUP PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY

    EUR

    6.67

    -4.10%

    AIB GROUP release

    A5G

    AIB published its Half‑Year 2025 results on August 1, reporting profit after tax of €927 million, EPS of 39.0c and RoTE of 21.4 %, with guidance reaffirmed that full‑year RoTE will exceed 20 %. Net interest income fell as anticipated due to lower rates, but fee and commission income rose, and mortgage new lending was up 7 % with market share at 32 %. These results broadly matched consensus forecasts and management commented that performance reflects strong demand in the resilient Irish economy amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

    ENGI

    Engie SA

    EUR

    19.14

    -2.45%

    Engie SA release

    ENGI

    Engie delivered H1 2025 results, with EBIT excluding nuclear at €5.1 billion representing an organic decrease of 6.4%, which was at the low end of analyst expectations and confirmed management's earlier guidance that 2025 would be a trough year. CEO Catherine MacGregor emphasized these were "solid results in normalizing market conditions and in an uncertain economic and geopolitical context," highlighting the company's diversified geographical footprint as a key asset providing flexibility during current economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Revenue increased 1.4% on a reported basis to €38.1 billion, while the company maintained strong cash generation with €8.4 billion in cash flow from operations. Net recurring income fell 19% to €3.1 billion, slightly below the €3.14 billion analyst estimate, reflecting lower energy prices and reduced hydropower production due to less rainfall. Management confirmed its full-year 2025 guidance with net recurring income expected between €4.4-5.0 billion and EBIT excluding nuclear in the €8.0-9.0 billion range, noting that H2 2025 is expected to show improvement compared to last year as they reach the low point of the earnings cycle

    JMT

    Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA

    EUR

    20.46

    -4.39%

    Jeronimo Martins release

    JMT

    Jeronimo Martins delivered a strong Q2 2025, reporting EBITDA of €620 million, up 16.5% year-on-year and markedly better than analyst forecasts. The EBITDA margin rose to 6.9% from 6.5% a year ago, highlighting the company’s effective management of input cost inflation in a persistently cautious consumer environment. Total group sales increased to €9.02 billion and were supported by Biedronka’s robust double-digit top-line growth, which remained sustained by network expansion and a disciplined pricing strategy, enabling market share gains despite strong price sensitivity among consumers, particularly in Poland. The company reiterated its cautious stance for H2 2025, emphasizing that while the robust operating performance year-to-date strengthens their market position, they expect persistent volatility in consumer confidence and continued input cost pressures, especially regarding labor and supply chain expenses. Management underscored that achieving previous levels of like-for-like sales growth would be “challenging,” particularly given the unexpectedly strong comparable from 2024 and ongoing economic headwinds influencing household budgets.

    CS

    AXA SA

    EUR

    39.77

    -6.82%

    AXA SA release

    CS

    AXA’s Half‑Year 2025 press release published today revealed revenues up +7 % and underlying earnings per share up +8 %, with a Solvency II ratio at 220 %. Management portrayed these as strong results from a diversified business model. However, an analyst‐compiled consensus had anticipated underlying earnings of around €4.45 billion, whereas AXA reported €4.5 billion—marginally ahead—and net income of €3.92 billion, below the ~€4.25 billion expected, mainly due to unfavorable foreign exchange impacts. CEO Thomas Buberl emphasized consistent momentum across Property & Casualty (P&C), Life & Health, and rising net flows in Life & Savings, while noting disciplined underwriting, retention in P&C and persistency in savings products. The acquisition of Prima in Italy was flagged as a strategic move to bolster direct P&C distribution, with management expecting value accretion despite owning only 51 % initially.

    ITRK

    INTERTEK GROUP PLC

    GBp

    4556.00

    -7.77%

    Intertek release

    ITRK

    Intertek released its Half‑Year 2025 results today via its investor relations site, reporting revenue of £1,673 million, up 4.5 % constant currency (0.2 % actual) and adjusted EPS growth of 12.6 % (6.3 % at actual rates). Operating cash flow conversion hit 118 % and adjusted margin improved 80bps. Management highlighted investments in growth, including the acquisition of TESIS in Brazil, and said pricing discipline and operating leverage drove margin accretion. The business environment was described as increasingly competitive but supportive of specialist testing and assurance services, with rising demand for AI‑assurance and ESG‑related work.

    EVKA

    Evonik Industries AG

    EUR

    8.25

    -10.33%

    Evonik Industries AG release

    EVKA

    Evonik published its Q2 2025 results today, reporting core profit of €509 million, down 12 % year‑on‑year and slightly below analysts’ forecast of €511 million. Sales declined 11 % to €3.5 billion, impacted by currency headwinds and the prior divestment of the superabsorbent unit. Management said the chemical market remains soft, with subdued demand, high energy costs and supply chain disruptions weighing heavily, and confirmed that FY adjusted EBITDA is expected at the lower end of its €2.0–2.3 billion guidance range. Outlook remains guarded amid ongoing economic softness and tariff uncertainties affecting the broader sector.

    TEP

    Teleperformance SE

    EUR

    70.02

    -18.32%

    Teleperformance release

    TEP

    Teleperformance reported H1 Group revenue rose 1.5% like-for-like to €5,116 million, with Core Services accelerating to 3.5% like-for-like growth in Q2, led by gains in the EMEA and Asia-Pacific regions driven by better client retention and a ramp-up in AI-enabled back-office solutions. However, Specialized Services faced a 7% drop in like-for-like revenue due to the non-renewal of a significant visa application contract and continued volatility in the US market. The recurring EBITA margin remained stable at 13.9% excluding currency impact, though diluted earnings per share fell to €4.19 from €4.83 last year, as net profit slipped to €249 million. Management updated full-year objectives, guiding for revenue growth at the lower end of the initial 2–4% range and a recurring EBITA margin of about 15% at constant rates. CEO Daniel Julien emphasized Teleperformance’s ability to perform “despite a volatile macroeconomic environment,” expressing full confidence in the company’s future, while Deputy CEO Thomas Mackenbrock pointed to operational agility and clear strategy execution. The group’s new “Future Forward” strategy, focused on next-gen AI integration, is being implemented across the company, with a strong pipeline in Core Services expected to offset ongoing headwinds in Specialized Services for the rest of the year.

    Bonds:

    Versus early hours

    SECTOR PERFORMANCE

    Today’s Performance

    Versus early hours:

    Indices

    Versus early hours

    Commodities

    DISCLAIMER

    This material is provided by Eurolink Securities L.L.C. for information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or financial instrument. The opinions, forecasts, facts, and recommendations contained here are based upon the information available as of the date of the report. The analysts are basing their opinions upon information they have received from sources they believe to be accurate and reliable. The report is directed exclusively at Institutional Investors who make their own decisions regardless of the present publication or opinions reflected within the report. This material is not a complete analysis of all material facts respecting any issuer, industry, or security or of your investment objectives, parameters, needs or financial situation, and therefore is not a sufficient basis alone on which to base an investment decision. A guarantee of completeness and accuracy of the information in this report is not assumed by Eurolink Securities LLC and any liability arising from the use of this report is excluded and disclaimed. The information contained herein is as of the date and time referenced above. Opinions and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Eurolink Securities L.L.C. has any obligation to update such information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value of investments. Transactions involving the financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Eurolink Securities L.L.C. has no obligation to continue to provide this research product and no such obligation is implied or guaranteed. The distribution rights of this report belong solely to Eurolink Securities L.L.C. It is prohibited to publish or to give this report or parts to third parties. No parts of it may be reproduced, resold, stored, or transmitted in any printed, electronic, or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service, or product without Eurolink Securities LLC’s previous approval.